I was playing around with this new online database that shows graduation rates (thanks, Joanne!) and the first thing I did was search for the local school district (State College School District). I then, of course, checked Bloomington’s "city" school district (Monroe County Community School Corporation), expecting to see similar stats. They’re both college towns, with campuses roughly the same size (Penn State’s flagship campus is a little larger than Indiana University’s, but they’re comparable), they’re not quite the same size (Bloomington is larger), but close, not urban, certainly, and not really small towns. They both have the same kind of semi-rural, leave your doors unlocked feel. There are two high schools in the Monroe County Community School Corporation, Bloomington North and Bloomington South, and one in the State College School District, State College High School.
What I found is not what I had expected. But first, let’s compare graduation rates (these data are for 2002-2003) for the two states, just as a control:
|
State
|
Graduation rate
|
| Indiana | 73% |
| Pennsylvania | 79% |
There’s a difference of 6%, but it’s not vast, certainly not large enough to explain this:
|
School district
|
Graduation rate
|
| Monroe County Community School Corporation | 73.3% |
| State College School District | 94.3% |
Considering how similar the two communities are (above), how can we account for this discrepancy? My first impulse was to check other school districts in both Monroe County (Indiana) and Centre County (Pennsylvania), thinking perhaps if I did, the discrepancy would disappear. There is only one other school district in Monroe County, the Richland-Bean Blossom Community School Corporation (yes, there really is such a place as Bean Blossom, Indiana) and several other school districts in Centre County, so I also got the data from a very small, very rural school district in Indiana, the Northeast Dubois County School Corporation:
|
School district
|
Graduation rate
|
| Richland-Bean Blossom Community School Corporation | 84.1% |
| Northeast Dubois County School Corporation | 93.5% |
| Bellefonte Area School District | 91.6% |
| Bald Eagle School District | 92.7% |
I chose the Bellefonte Area School District because locals are fond of sneering at it (Bellefonte is the county seat, so there’s a certain amount of envy going on there), and it’s significantly smaller than the State College School District. I could have chosen any of the other districts in the county to get the same contrast (small, rural), but went with the closest, the Bald Eagle School District.
Clearly, contrasting Bloomington and State College with smaller, rural districts only partially accounts for the discrepancy. Richland-Bean Blossom has a higher graduation rate than Bloomington, but still lower than both of the Centre County districts. But if we add in school districts from large urban areas in each state (I chose the major school district from the two cities), things get even more bizarre:
|
School district
|
Graduation rate
|
| Indianapolis Public Schools | 26.2% |
| Pittsburgh School District | 55.8% |
Not only are the graduating rates significantly lower than even the Bloomington rates, but the IPS rate is far lower than I would have expected (what I would call shut them down, fire everybody, hire all new faculty and staff, change everything and start all over again low).
It seemed almost a waste of time to see if perhaps the level of education of the general populace could account for the difference, since both Bloomington and State College are college towns, but I did it anyway:
|
District/Community
|
Bachelor’s or higher (N)
|
Bachelor’s or higher (%)
|
Graduation rate
|
| Bloomington | 17174 | 24.8% | 73.3% |
| State College | 7555 | 19.7% | 94.3% |
The difference in educational levels between the two is misleading, since in reality, the college town here is Happy Valley, of which State College Borough is only a part. Still, I doubt that even if we could somehow get the education levels of the Happy Valley populace (which we cannot, because Happy Valley is a conglomeration and no census data are taken), they would increase the numbers enough to account for the difference.
So population, does that account for it? It doesn’t seem like it does, from just looking at Bloomington and State College, but when we take into account all the other data:
|
District/Community
|
Graduation rate
|
Population
|
| Monroe County Community School Corporation | 73.3% | 69,291 |
| State College School District | 94.3% | 38,420 |
| Richland-Bean Blossom Community School Corporation | 84.1% | 6,026 |
| Northeast Dubois County School Corporation | 93.5% | 1,675 |
| Bellefonte Area School District | 91.6% | 6,395 |
| Bald Eagle School District | 92.7% | 1,898 |
| Indianapolis Public Schools | 26.2% | 1,607,486 |
| Pittsburgh School District | 55.8% | 2,358,695 |
If we run a Pearson correlation, we get the following:
| Graduation rate | Population | |
| Graduation rate | 1 | |
| Population | -0.81442 | 1 |
Granted, I’m not working with much data, certainly not enough that I can draw any conclusions. Still, the r is -0.81442, and that’s a strong, negative correlation (r2 is 0.6633, indicating that 66.33% of the variation in graduation rates is accounted for by variation in population), and it indicates that the larger the population, the lower the graduation rate. Somebody–not me–needs to analyze more data, and see if this holds true with a significantly larger sample.
But I think it’s interesting, especially all the nonsense we hear from the urban pinkie-up liberals about stupid rednecks who live in small towns or the country. And before somebody says it, yes, I know the data are cherry-picked, and yes, I know the data are not representative. I was just playing with the database. But that’s exactly why I say somebody should look into this further.



