Right Wing Nation

Everybody else is speculating (particularly since McCain refused to address the question on the conference call), and I’ve been leaving comments about it on other blogs, so here are my uncrystallized thoughts. And I do mean uncrystallized, as in thinking aloud. John Hawkins has a more clearly thought out list here, although I don’t agree with all of his selections.

McCain has two major issues to resolve when picking a running mate: Political spectrum, and geography. On the political spectrum question, I think he should pick somebody somewhat to his right, but not too far to the right. The “I don’t care about anything except whether he’s like me or not” identity politics voters who form Huckabee’s core are not, for the most part, going to vote for McCain, no matter who he picks, so choosing someone way on the far right is pointless and could hurt his chances come November. Like Reagan, who in the 1980 primaries was getting about the same percentage of votes as McCain is now, he needs to pull from both right and left.

Geography is thorny. Should he try to pull from the south or the midwest?

First, the absolute bad idea candidates. Huckabee would alienate more voters than he would attract. Mitt would open up the race to charges of flip-flopping, not to mention the particularly ugly Mormon baiting we saw in the primaries. Fred doesn’t have enough of a following to benefit McCain’s race, and anyway, because of his age, I think McCain should choose somebody younger. Also, picking somebody from Congress may be unavoidable, but executive experience would be ideal.

McCain can’t pick somebody ideologically opposed on any of McCain’s strongest issues. That rules out the radical protectionist Duncan Hunter, who is in the wrong party and would be much happier as a Blue Dog Democrat. And Hunter, like Fred, doesn’t have enough of a following to benefit Johnny Mac. Appointing a big porker would have the same effect: An oil-and-vinegar ticket. Picking a free-trade, fiscal conservative is a must. And speaking of musts, McCain can’t afford to alienate hawks. Any of the mealy-mouthed Republicans who suddenly became silent on the war because they were afraid of losing votes would be disastrous. Unfortunately, that rules out most of the Republicans sitting in Congress. In fact, McCain would do well to steer clear of anybody too closely associated with the “compassionate conservative” big government give me my bribe big spenders in the party. Tone deaf idiots like Hastert would not be a good idea.

A number of interesting people have been put forth. Marsha Blackburn and Sarah Palin have been two, and although I think in most other ways either would be a good pick, neither has enough experience. Assuming Obama is nominated, experience will be a serious campaign issue; appointing a VP with little more experience than Obama would undermine it.

Mark Sanford (governor of South Carolina) would be a great choice, except for one thing: Name recognition. He’s a rock star among bloggers in the dextrosphere, but other than South Carolinians, nobody has heard of him.

Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota) has the credentials and executive experience, and would be a good choice if McCain wants to go for the midwest rather than the south. I’m not sure that’s a good idea, though.

Mike Pence has been mentioned on several blogs, but for whatever reason, other than a few exceptions, Hoosier politicians have little name recognition. He’s a rock star with a significant slice of politically savvy conservatives, but nobody else knows who he is. The same is true of any other Hoosier, like Souder. Sodrel is way too much of a Tom DeLay porker Republican to be on the McCain ticket, plus he has that same name recognition problem.

Liddy Dole is a bad idea. She’s incompetent. Look at the job she did with the NRSC. Nothing to see here, folks.

Phil Gramm or Jack Kemp would be a good selection. Both have the experience, credentials, and gravitas. Forget Newt for any election, ever. He has extremely high disapproval ratings still, even though he’s been out of office for years. Too much baggage. J.C. Watts also has a lot of positives. He’d counter-balance the two tickets of Obama is the nominee, he’s got the credentials, and he’s from Oklahoma. Oklahoma doesn’t have a lot of electoral votes, but is one of the few states that could solve the “south v. midwest” dilemma. The biggest disadvantage he’d bring to the ticket is that, like McCain, he’s outspoken, sometimes to the point of being harsh. Two on one ticket wouldn’t work well. Dick Armey would present the same problem, in addition to negative baggage.

Condi has also been proposed, but I don’t think she’d accept, and she might alienate hawks (ditto for Powell). Both caught bad cases of State Departmentitis. On the other hand, Condi would be the Hillary and Obama killer, all wrapped up into one.

Here’s somebody I haven’t seen proposed that might make an excellent choice: Bill Owens. He’s a traditional western conservative who worked well with social conservatives in Colorado (I believe he was re-elected in the biggest landslide in Colorado history). He’s charismatic, he has the credentials, he plays well with others, and he has no negative baggage.

I don’t know. Still thinking about this one.