Right Wing Nation

From Rasmussen:

New polling released Wednesday by Rasmussen Reports has moved Michigan and Pennsylvania from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. McCain now holds statistically insignificant leads over both Democratic contenders in both states. But, state history and Rasmussen Markets data continue to favor the Democrats.

Well, I suppose if your historical window is relatively narrow, state history would favor the Democrats — I’m not sure how much credence I give the Markets data. And their four-day rolling average polls are interesting (latest sample 1600 likely voters and a margin of error of 3 percentage points). Rasmussen, by the way, does not as far as I can find publish the demographics of their surveys, so it’s impossible to say how balanced the results are.

So McCain is tied with both Democrats. And this is also good for McCain:

Forty-six percent (46%) of likely voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror, according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey. Twenty-two percent (22%) say the terrorists are winning, 27% say Neither.

Given that there’s likely no hidden dirt to dig up on McCain — the man has been in office for 22 years, and if there were anything there, the press would have found and published it already — and given that the Obamabubble is beginning to lose air (and the press hasn’t really started asking him substantial questions about issues yet), it’s looking good for McCain. As an aside, a large section of Obama’s base support is that ever elusive “youth vote” that never materializes on the first Tuesday of November.

If Obama is the nominee, the latest Pew polls (2/28/08) suggest that McCain will receive more crossover votes:

Overall, 20% of white Democratic voters say they would vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee. That is twice the percentage of white Democrats who say they would support McCain in a Clinton-McCain matchup. Older Democrats (ages 65 and older), lower-income and less educated Democrats also would support McCain at higher levels if Obama rather than Clinton is the party’s nominee.

According to a story that appeared in yesterday’s LA Times, Democrats are worried that their two candidates might drive voters to McCain.

I don’t believe that it’s mathematically possible for Hillary to win the nomination without the superdelegate count at the convention. If Obama has more popular votes, but Hillary wins the nomination, it will be ugly. While I admit that I’ve been eating my share of popcorn watching the infighting on the other side of the fence, I do not want to see the Democrats implode. Without two healthy parties, we cannot have a healthy nation.

But implode is likely to be an understatement, should the above happen (and who could blame them?), and McCain will be even more likely to win the election in November due to disaffected (speaking of understatement) voters. Worse, many Democrats have become not only disenchanted with, but angry at Hillary and her Clintonian politics, at least to judge from newspaper columns, letters to the editors, blog posts, and comments. Hillary’s nomination would gladden only her vigorous supporters.

The one possible magic bullet would be an Obama-Clinton (or Clinton-Obama) ticket. But Obama has already said he’s not interested, and I’m fairly certain that there is no way in hell Hillary would accept a VP slot on any ticket. She wants the power too badly, and her immense ego would not let her subject herself to the humiliation.

A Clinton nomination will, I’m quite sure, motivate people to go to the polls in November and vote against her. And remember: Hillary is not Bill. She doesn’t have the gift of gab, nor the slickness. In the coming eight months, the odds that Hillary will at least several times put people off are close to a hundred percent.

If you think people mobilized against Kerry, just wait till Hillary’s at the top of the ticket. She won’t be easy to beat in the election, but Hillary is her own worst enemy.

McCain is not a long shot for Novemeber. But I disagree with many in the dextrosphere about what he should do on the campaign trail, as I said here. If McCain wins, he will do it with support from moderates, with or without the self-appointed Republican “base,” just as Reagan did.

McCain won’t pander. It’s not the way he is. In fact, that is the biggest reason people are annoyed with him. That doesn’t mean, however, that he can’t do things that would mollify some of the opposition within his own ranks.

He has already signed onto DeMint’s earmarks reform bill, and said that as President, he would veto any bill with earmarks (see here). That’s going to carry him far with fiscal conservatives. Dafydd makes an excellent argument that McCain should back the SAVE Act (he should hurry, because it looks like the House will force it to the floor for a vote). The SAVE Act is no wild-eyed, extremist bill: It was sponsored by Heath Shuler, a Democrat.

The implication on the dextrosphere is that McCain needs to kiss ass (it’s not going to happen), or at least become somebody other than McCain to win. I humbly suggest this is pure narcissism. McCain has taken some stances with which I vigorously disagree (see my article on why I’m voting for McCain), but McCain is no sell-out, and most annoyingly to the “base,” nobody, including them, owns him. And this is precisely why many moderates and independents will vote for him. If McCain is to win the election, he must be McCain.

In Iowa, McCain came right out and said he opposed ethanol subsidies.

In Michigan, he flatly stated that those jobs are never coming back.

And most recently, he responded to the Airbus/Boeing issue:

Senator McCain said Tuesday in St. Louis that he was proud to have played a role in blowing the whistle on the Boeing contract, and that he believed the criteria for awarding such business should be getting the best equipment for the Armed Forces at the lowest cost to taxpayers. After he raised questions about the original Boeing contract, it was discovered that the No. 2 weapons buyer at the Air Force has been promised jobs for herself and her relatives with Boeing for steering them business.

As in Iowa and Michigan, that might not make some in Seattle happy, but Americans admire honesty, particularly in politicians.

Frankly, I think a McCain win would be the best thing that could happen to the GOP, but that’s a topic for another day and another article.

McCain’s common sense, fiscal conservatism — and utter lack of “compassionate conservatism” — his experience, and his leadership are strengths with which neither Democrat can compete. But if you want to see why McCain can win in November, watch this video. The opening says it all.

“Our democracy is not for sale. We are American first, Americans last, and Americans always.”

That, my friends, is what wins elections, not refusing to wear an American flag on your lapel or beating down the United States or wringing your hands about what the French think about us. You’d think after John Kerry the Democrats would have figured that out.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I just got an email message about volunteering in Pennsylvania. I need to reply.

rightwingprof :: Mar.12.2008 :: McCain, '08 :: 5 Comments »

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