Bull Dog Pundit has some interesting commentary on yesterday’s primary, discussing what the primary has to say about what will happen in November. But here is what caught my eye:
What shocked the hell out of me is that Hillary Clinton [won] Montgomery and Bucks County - 2 of the 4 “bedroom counties†collaring Philadelphia.
That’s a sit up and take notice moment. So I thought I’d head over to the state election results and check those counties.
Bucks County:
62.6% - 37.4%, Clinton - Obama
Montgomery County:
50.7% - 49.3%, Clinton - Obama
Chester County:
44.8% - 55.2%, Clinton - Obama
Delaware County:
44.6% - 55.4%, Clinton - Obama
She butchered him in Bucks County, and won by a slim margin in Montgomery County. McCain could carry those two counties in November, since to a large extent, McCain and Hillary connect with the same voters. But the Bull Dog has even more interesting news:
Obama only won 7 counties - Philadelphia (a given, and a 65-35% margin was way to small), Chester and Delaware county (the other 2 “bedroom counties), Dauphin (where Harrisburg is), Lancaster (where nearly all of the Democrats are inner city minorities. And don’t get fooled. When you hear “Lancaster†you may think of the Amish, but that’s outside the city), Centre County (where Penn State is) and a small county next to it [Union County, where Bucknell University is located].
What Obama needs to worry about if he’s the nominee is that Lancaster and Dauphin county will go Republican (a lot more Republicans), and many of the Hillary voters in Chester and Delaware could easily go to McCain.
And even if Obama wins the 4 “bedroom†communities, it very well might not be a big enough margin to make up for his obvious lack of support in the rest of the state. The reason Ed Rendell, and every Democrat presidential candidate since 1992 has won PA is because they racked up big enough margins in Philly and the “bedroom counties†to make up for the rest of the state. If Obama can’t do that, he’s in deep, deep trouble.
I think Obama is in trouble now. He’s not very bright, for one thing. He makes stupid statements, and then doesn’t have the intelligence to figure out that they were stupid statements, or understand why, so he spins — and basically repeats the stupid statements. His campaign staff, being cut out of the same crowd of over-educated idiots, are no help, and he’ll continue to do this all the way up until the election.
Obama also has no guts. He’s weak, and he whines. He didn’t want to debate Hillary in North Carolina, and he didn’t want to answer questions (actually, that’s happened several times already). He may be able to get away with that running against Hillary for the nomination, but not against McCain.
Obama runs fine as long as everybody is crying and fainting and trying to touch his robe. But he gets frustrated when he’s not being venerated, and he stumbles.
Many of those Hillary voters will pull the lever for John McCain in November, mainly because McCain has all the attributes they liked about Reagan (patriotism, strong national defense, and yes, social issues like guns and abortion), and where they deeply distrust Obama
Exactly. McCain can win without Pennsylvania, but Obama can’t. I’m not saying McCain will win Pennsylvania, but if Obama is the Democrat, and if McCain campaigns hard in the right places, it’s certainly possible — possible enough that the Democrats should be nervous.
Gotta get a prescription refilled and grab some lunch.
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I am a Republican that would vote for Hillary if she got the Dem nomination. My area is the bedroom towns around Philadelphia and we love her! If Obama is the Dem on the ticket, how about considering Hillary for a VP position? It is innovative, your style to stretch the imagination and will win all the areas that are pro-Hillary but split if Obama wins the nomination. Think about it - the woman has fortitude and has accomplished what women want to have in a Presidential ticket. Thanks!