More Candy
This is from Rasmussen’s latest poll results. This is like posting something from the WSJ (at least before they dropped the subscriber firewall). I’m a Rasmussen subscriber and I’m not sure what’s behind the firewall and what isn’t. So if this link doesn’t work for you, this one will (though it won’t have all of the information — that’s the point of subscribing). Like yesterday’s Gallup poll, Rasmussen has McCain ahead of Obama (51-44), but the results from the battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia) are particularly interesting. (Insert standard disclaimer about polls here — and do I have to keep doing this? You people know by now, right?) For each state MOE: ±4.5, 95% CI, N=500 LV.
A collective look at all five states confirms the overall sense that the race for the White House is very competitive and that these five states will be considered key battlegrounds. Four of the five state polls show the candidates within 3 points of each other. The sole exception—Ohio—shows McCain with a 51% to 44% advantage and also remains competitive.
[ . . . ]
Ohio—shows McCain with a 51% to 44% advantage and also remains competitive.
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A number of themes emerge from the data that are consistent across all five states:
· McCain is trusted more than Obama in all five states.
· In all five states, McCain is viewed more favorably than Obama.
· Also, in all five states, Sarah Palin draws higher “Very Favorable” ratings than any other candidate.
· In all states except Colorado, McCain enjoys a bigger margin among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats. In Colorado, they are even.
· Economic issues are the top issue in all five states with national security matters a distant second.
· The number who would not be comfortable with Obama as President is higher in every state than the number saying the same about McCain. This is consistent with national polling data showing that McCain voters are more likely than Obama supporters to be primarily voting against the other candidate.
· Obama has the edge among unaffiliated voters in three states, McCain in two. Nationally, unaffiliated voters are fairly evenly divided.
· Pennsylvania has more undecided voters than any other state—seven percent (7%). Most of these are Democrats or unaffiliated voters.
Obama leads McCain by only two points (47-45) in Pennsylvania. McCain’s approval ratings are 88% favorable among Republicans, which is a significant change from the last time I looked. McCain has solid support from 84% of Republicans; Obama from 65% of Democrats (35% of Democrats said they may change their minds). Among all likely voters for both candidates, 74% are solid support, and 26% soft support. Of likely voters, 58% would be comfortable with Obama as President, and 65% with McCain as President. McCain is more trusted than Obama among likely voters (48-41).
Maybe the Democrats shouldn’t take Pennsylvania for granted.
Mitch H.:
But in close races, GOTV is crucial. The Kerry idiots bobbled every which way, and had a much weaker, dumber set of candidates, but they still took the state four years ago, and that was with a much more organized Republican GOTV effort than we’re seeing as of yet. It’s Minutemen time in the Pennsylvania ground game. Organize or get overrun, because the Obama people have the numbers.
In fact, they probably have more people than they know what to do with. Our best hope is that their organization peaked early, and they’re all in their big, expensive bunkers playing online videogames against each other instead of working the phones.
September 9, 2008, 6:51 pm