Right Wing Nation

“The Palin Effect,” Noemie Emery, which is as much about Hillary and the Democrats as it is Palin and the Republicans. Sharp analysis.

If Obama wins, she gets to see her party in power, if that is her object. The problem is that the party is no longer hers. Or hers and her husband’s. If Obama wins, the Clintons become history. They also slip down considerably on the great grid of power: She is eclipsed by a president who defeated her, a first lady who hates her, a loquacious vice president with a large, lively family, and a legion of people who early on threw in their lots with Obama, and have prior claims upon him and his loyalty. She becomes in effect a footnote to history, remembered perhaps for her personal dramas, her historic run in the primaries no longer remarkable, but overshadowed by Sarah Palin’s run for vice president. Win or lose, Palin becomes the country’s most visible she-politician, culture phenomenon, as well as the best bet to succeed John McCain at the head of her party. Hillary is yesterday’s news, and has the rest of her life to brood on the mistakes that caused her to lose–very narrowly–the great prize she wanted and pursued, some will tell you, for the past 30 years.

This changes, however, if McCain wins. At once, she becomes the most important Democrat, the shipwreck survivor, the frontrunner for her party’s 2012 nomination; the road not taken; the one that, if followed, would have led to the outcome for which her party has struggled so long. For four long years, she will be saying “I told you so”–to the super-delegates who didn’t flock to her even when she won all those big primaries; to Obama, now back in the Senate, who didn’t name her when he had his big chance. A deflated Messiah, a wünderkind who couldn’t quite hack it, Obama would join Al Gore and John Kerry in the weary line of pitiful losers who tried and failed to match Bill Clinton’s success. Bill Clinton himself becomes the Big Dog again, the one shining light in the overall darkness, the only Democrat to be elected twice since Franklin D. Roosevelt, the most successful Democrat since the mid-1960s, when Lyndon Johnson’s luck, along with his party’s good fortune, ran out. (Granted, this is a fairly low bar to get over. But still.) If you were Hillary Clinton, which prospect would you find more appealing? Let’s guess.

[ . . . ]

The truth is that Hillary’s feminists were never the key to her primary victories. Her triumphs in the big states that were so impressive–Ohio and Texas, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia–were fueled by (Andrew) Jacksonian voters, in less elite venues, who found her the more conservative of the two Democrats; the least urban, the least elitist, the most likely to be strong and assertive in foreign affairs. These are not people for whom Roe v. Wade (either way) is a big voting issue. They are people for whom toughness is. They perceive, correctly, that each is a woman you would want to have on your wagon train if you were crossing the continent, and to them, each has the same gutsy, tough-woman vibe. It is not irrelevant that the places where the McCain people expect Palin to help most are the states in which Clinton managed to mop the floor with Obama, the states Obama offended with his “God and guns” ridicule. Clinton and Palin cannot afford to offend all of each other’s constituents, and perhaps they don’t want to.

And so, Hillary is missing in action from the Palin-hating brigade. She and McCain are said to be friends, and to work well together. In the primaries, she often compared Obama unfavorably to her friend in the Senate. Her comment that she and McCain had credentials in the national security area while Obama had a speech made four years ago has already appeared in McCain’s commercials, and it is hard to believe when she said it that she could not foresee this happening. It is also hard to believe that after she and Bill vote for McCain in the privacy of the voting booth up in Chappaqua, they will not be among the first to make phone calls to Sarah Palin, and then to John McCain.

And “How Liberal Trolls Are Working To Get McCain Elected President,” by DJ Drummond. The main thesis is interesting, but what I find fascinating (naturally) is that he has compared the polls to their crosstabs and noticed that the numbers don’t add up (the Firefox spelling checker doesn’t know crosstabs?)

So, put it all together, and in the past week Obama has stayed steady or lost support in every party identification group, yet Gallup says his overall support went up four points. And McCain stayed steady or went up in every party identification group, yet we are supposed to accept the claim that his overall support went down by four points? Anyone have an answer for how that is even possible?

He has the answer. Go read it. And California Conservative points out a few other incongruities in the polls.

I also am leery of polls this year. I may write about why when and if I can hunt down a believable hypothesis.