This Is What Math Is For
I got chided over at Hot Air by somebody who claimed the “facts” have been out there for two weeks, and I just wasn’t paying attention.
Sorry, but no, they have not. Where are the economic analyses balancing a bailout against none? I’ll tell you where they are: Nobody has bothered to do any.
Pardon my skepticism, but hysteria tends to do that to me. Let’s see those analyses.
Not everybody is shrieking “the sky is falling!” Here’s law professor Ilya Somin:
Past history shows that stock market drops, even big ones, don’t necessarily cause longterm damage to the economy. Today’s drop in stock values, while the largest in absolute terms, is not even in the top 10 relative to total shareholder value. The 1987 stock market crash was much more severe - a 22.6% loss in share value on the Dow Jones in one day - three times today’s 7% drop. Yet the economy recovered swiftly, in part because policymakers were wise enough to let failing firms go bankrupt and free up their resources for use by more efficient industries.
Like me, Somin is waiting for more analysis. And economists across the political spectrum are signing a petition against a bailout, saying in part the same thing I am.
If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, Americas dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.
For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.
So everybody, take your meds, calm down, and start doing the math.
Oh, speaking of skepticism, Mike Pence had the best line:
“I must tell you, there are those in the public debate who have said that we must act now. The last time I heard that, I was on a used-car lot,” said Rep. Mike Pence, R-Indiana. “The truth is, every time somebody tells you that you’ve got to do the deal right now, it usually means they’re going to get the better part of the deal.”
That’s exactly how I feel. Does anybody else think this is remarkably like all that green nuttiness? Ratify Kyoto and use only one sheet of toilet paper, or we’re all going to DIE! Give us 700 billion dollars now or we’re all going to DIE!
Uh-huh.
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